The Data — 86.9M FEC Records, Wasted Donations, 2026 Races
2000 – 2026 Federal Election Data
Democratic donors gave
$666M to races
that never had a chance.
Not because donors are uninformed. Because nobody showed them the odds before they gave. That ends here.
32%
of all Dem spend
went to losing races
339
structurally
unwinnable races
🏴
$666M
Wasted on hopeless races
R+8 or worse partisan lean — structurally unwinnable going in
💸
$100M+
Est. consultant commissions
~15% of losing-race spend went to media buyers, mail vendors, digital consultants — win or lose
🔁
13
Consecutive election cycles
The same pattern of funding unwinnable races, every cycle from 2000 through 2024
Exhibit A
Same Thing. Every Cycle.
Hundreds of millions in donor money poured into structurally unwinnable races — every two years, like clockwork. The consultants running these campaigns had every incentive to keep them alive.
Red bars = donations to R+8 or worse races that had no path to victory · Source: FEC bulk data 2000–2024
Exhibit B
The 2024 Money Pits
Candidates who raised enormous sums in races they either lost by 10%+ or won by 20%+ — money that couldn't move the needle. This is where your money went if you donated to these campaigns.
| # |
Candidate |
Race |
Lean |
Margin |
Raised |
| 1 | Colin Allred | TX Senate | R+13 | Lost by 11.2% | $96M |
| 2 | Jon Tester | MT Senate | R+11 | Lost by 14.3% | $92M |
| 3 | Adam Schiff | CA Senate | D+22 | Won by 20.4% | $38M |
| 4 | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | FL Senate | R+3 | Lost by 12.9% | $28M |
| 5 | Angela Alsobrooks | MD Senate | D+25 | Won by 20.1% | $24M |
* Lost by 10%+ = structurally unwinnable or badly run. Won by 20%+ = safe seat that didn't need the money. Source: FEC.gov, AP Elections
Exhibit C
Where the Money Burned
Wasted donor money wasn't spread evenly — it concentrated in a handful of states where candidates ran high-profile, high-spend campaigns in deeply red territory.
By State — Top Wasted
Hopeless-race spending by state
By Race Type
Senate vs. House hopeless races
The Solution
The Information Donors Were Never Given
✗ The Old Way — ActBlue
Donate first. Find out it was hopeless later.
🔴No win-probability score before you give
🔴Your email sold to campaigns at point of donation
🔴~6% effective fee (platform + PayPal + tip pressure)
🔴No performance tracking — no way to know your impact
🔴Recurring donations auto-enrolled — hard to cancel
✓ The VoteROI Way
Every race scored before you give a dollar.
✅Win-probability score on every race — prediction markets + polling
✅Your data never shared with campaigns
✅2.75% flat fee — less than half of ActBlue
✅Donation X-Ray: see your full giving history + outcomes
✅No recurring traps. No tip prompts. No spam.
Put Your Money Where It Can Win.
Every race on VoteROI is scored by real win probability. Your donation goes where it actually changes outcomes — not where consultants get paid regardless.
See the 2026 Races →